University of São Paulo: Consolidation of the conservative right shows new scenario for the second round

This Sunday, (2), more than 156 million Brazilians were eligible to vote for the positions of Presidency of the Republic, state governors, senators and state and federal deputies. José Álvaro Moisés, professor of Political Science and researcher at the Center for Research in Public Policies at USP, evaluates the results of the electoral results: “We are facing a new situation in Brazilian politics”.

The advance of the conservative right
The first round of the Brazilian general elections showed the “consolidation of the Bolsonarista wave”. The Liberal Party (PL), for which the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, is running for reelection, secured the largest bench in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate for 2023. some shame to express themselves in Brazil and which is now occupying a lot of its own space and, in some way, marking Brazilian politics with a new inflection”, analyzes Moisés.

In the federal legislature, names aligned with the views of the extreme right were elected with Bolsonaro’s identification. Damares Alves (Republicans), Eduardo Pazuello (PL) and Ricardo Salles (PL) are some of the elected candidates who were part of the President’s Ministries and who “had a very negative role in Brazilian politics, from a democracy point of view”, says the teacher.

For him, the rise of the conservative right took place after the last general elections, in 2018. The economic, employment and income crises ended “a political cycle that, to a large extent, was organized in terms of the opposition between the PSDB and PT”, he explains. Moisés comments that the Workers’ Party did not respond to criticism on the issue of corruption, a central issue in 2018, “and led to the election of President Jair Bolsonaro”.

Outlook for the second round
The presidential candidates “will face a new game”. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and current president Jair Bolsonaro face off in the most polarized election since redemocratization. Regarding Lula’s statement after the confirmation of the second round, the researcher warns: “I am not convinced by the idea of ​​prorogation”.

The professor suggests that the PT candidate will be able to win if he dialogues with the voters of the so-called “third way”, led by Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes. In addition to expanding his alliances, Lula must “modernize his speech”, given that he relied on the image of the past. “In the last 20 years, Brazil has changed a lot. It has lost its international role, the economy is in shambles, the average income of Brazilians has dropped, unemployment is high.”

In turn, the president may have convinced a portion of voters in recent months: “Bolsonaro has made some decisions that seem to have been designed to address some of these issues.” For reelection, “he would have to get out of his bubble and communicate with Brazil as a whole”, says the professor.

For him, one of the messages sent by voters is that the candidates were not clear enough in their proposals. “We need communication [from the candidates] that is capable of overcoming voters’ fears about change,” says Moisés. On the other hand, he indicates that, in the second round, people must renew themselves and evaluate the mistakes made in the vote.