University Of São Paulo Research Estimate Shows Probable Surge In Carbon Dioxide Emissions
An increase of 1% in carbon dioxide (CO²) emissions from fossil fuels is estimated in 2022, according to a scientific article published in the journal Nature. According to these estimates, emissions would reach 37.5 billion tons and would break the current emissions record, according to preliminary data presented at COP27, the United Nations (UN) Conference on Climate Change. And Brazil, even though it is not the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, plays a fundamental role thanks to emissions associated with land use change, that is, burning and cattle raising.
In 2020, due to the pandemic, while the world recorded a 7% drop in total greenhouse gas emissions, Brazil recorded a 9.5% increase which, according to the Climate Observatory , makes it probably , one of the only countries in the world to register an increase in this period.
Professor at the Institute of Geosciences (IGc) at USP Sônia Barros de Oliveira explains that the increase in CO² emissions has a significant impact on the rise in temperatures on the planet. “If the upward trend continues, soon the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere will be enough to raise the Earth’s temperature by 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, which is the limit set by the Paris climate agreement, in 2015, to avoid more serious consequences for the planet”, he analyzes.
In the global scenario, China has a forecast of a drop of 0.9%, for 2022, but despite this, it is still the largest emitter of CO² in absolute levels. In the per capita analysis , the largest issuer remains the United States, with a projected increase of 1.5%.
The pandemic brought regression to the graph of CO² emissions worldwide. Despite this, the end of the lockdown and the war in Ukraine accelerated the recovery. “In the post-covid scenario, emissions rose, despite the war in Ukraine, which limited the export of gas from Russia. This caused some countries to start using more polluting fossil fuels, such as coal, instead of gas”, says Sônia. The professor also points to the resumption of air travel as responsible for the increase thanks to aircraft fuel.
Marcos Buckeridge – Photo: Cecília Bastos/USP Images
Professor at the Institute of Biosciences (IB) at USP Marcos Buckeridge explains that education is the first step for the country to move towards the reduction of carbon emissions. “Not the education itself of young people, because young people are already convinced of the importance of climate change, but mainly of mature people, of people who are now active. It is very important that people are aware of the importance of this issue of reducing carbon dioxide so that we can protect the next generations.”
Carbon Market
To mitigate the effects of the presence of the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the carbon market was created. The market works like a reward system. If a company or industry produces within an established limit of permitted CO² emissions, or has an adequate policy to compensate the environment, such as planting trees, that company/industry earns credits.
These are the so-called carbon credits, which can be negotiated with other companies/industries that do not have such policies and that would, roughly speaking, be more polluting. In this way, the most sustainable company receives incentives to help the environment, while the most polluting company works to reduce emissions in order to reduce costs.
Professor at the School of Economics, Administration and Accounting of Ribeirão Preto (FEA-RP), at USP, Marcos Fava Neves, explains that, at first, the carbon market emerged as a non-governmental initiative, and that this ended up delaying regulation . “All regulations aim to set rules of the game, to be able to improve the institutional environment to make investments possible, to make exchanges possible.”
Buckeridge agrees with Neves and points out that, for the establishment of this market, adequate regulation is necessary. “It’s no use for us to have the political will and the willingness of companies to enter the market if we don’t have it regulated. In this sense, we must have the regulation being made by politicians. This is one of the roles that politics has to play in the world to speed up the process”, he pondered.
The first step for this regulation to take place has already been taken with the creation of decree nº 11.075 by the federal government, in May of this year. Based on it, a unique registration system called the National System for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Sinare) was created. The procedures established in the decree appoint Sinare as responsible for drawing up specific rules for the functioning of the carbon market.
The federal government decree also regulates the sectorial plans, which would be types of “projects” that act to mitigate climate change. According to the document, these “projects” need to be approved by an inter-ministerial commission, composed of the Ministries of the Environment and Economy, which, according to Buckeridge, will assist in complying with the guidelines established in the COP and encourage the country to enter into an economy green. “It is very beneficial for Brazil to use this law as a guide for us to become better when it comes to global climate change.”