Results Show Problems Of Disincentives And Resource Cuts

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, more famous by its acronym IBGE, is responsible for one of the most important measurements in the country: the Demographic Census. “Censuses are exhaustive population counts. The censuses take into account all the elements that make up a given population, it is a bit of an opposite definition to those counts that are sampled, which work only with a part of the total universe. This gives enormous accuracy to the information, it is not necessary to make inferences or statistical procedures to work with census data. They are very faithful and detailed photographs of a certain reality”, explains Fabio Betioli Contel, from the Department of Geography at the Faculty of Philosophy, Letters and Human Sciences at USP.

He also adds that, before carrying out the data collection, it is necessary to divide the census areas in order to apply the questionnaires: “Once the census tracts are determined, then the census takers go into the field with two types of questionnaires: a basic questionnaire and an expanded questionnaire . Both investigate characteristics that we can divide into two main groups: characteristics of the household and characteristics of the residents themselves. The basic questionnaire has 26 questions and the extended questionnaire has 77 questions. About 88%, 90% of households answer the basic questionnaire and 10%, 12% answer the extended questionnaire”.

reasons for delay

IBGE census taker interviews a resident of the quilombola community of Pedra Bonita, in Alto da Boa Vista, in the northern region of Rio. Demographic census by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) identifies for the first time the population and territory of quilombola communities in Brazil – Photo: Tânia Rego/Agência Brasil


The last census was carried out in 2010 and was supposed to be done every ten years. However, with the pandemic, the survey was postponed from 2020 to 2022. Even though data collection was completed on February 28 , its delay is undeniable and the delivery of results is only scheduled for the end of April . But the health crisis was not the only reason for this.

“In the case of the IBGE, in this context of war against civil service, President Bolsonaro also, in April 2019, on several occasions, went public to criticize the IBGE data on employment and unemployment . He had no shame in saying that the IBGE produced indices designed to deceive the population, that these statistics were a farce. Without any basis, he questioned the calculation techniques”, says the professor, who still names these attitudes as “statistical denialism” about the consequences of the Bolsonaro government. During this period, the disincentive through budget cuts was also an important point.

In 2021, more than 90% of the census budget, which was around two billion reais, was cut . The impact of this was not only a dismantling of the institution, but also the impossibility of considering starting the 2020 Census that year. “If, initially, around 200,000 census takers were planned, the information released says that there were something around 91,000 census takers in action, almost half of what had been defined as an adequate number to carry out the census. There was little time for training the census takers and that short time led to many dropouts, created many difficulties in dealing with the refusals of the census takers and avoiding refusals. There were many problems in defining remuneration and delays in amounts, dates and payments for enumerators”, points out the professor about the lack of enumerators.


In addition, the lack of media coverage of the household collection was placed by Contel as another important point when analyzing the reasons for the delay in the census: “The census that is being carried out now, due to this shortage of resources, did not have previous public advertising campaigns, of disclosure, which have always been carried out. In 2010, even on national television, the census taker appeared in soap operas. Finally, the population was more enlightened and, in a certain sense, prepared to respond to the census, which did not happen now”.

Impacts
Many may think that the Census carried out by the IBGE is something that does not affect the population and serves only academics, however, its results and, consequently, delays impact several sectors. His data are present in statistical studies carried out by several companies, both public and private; with other analyzes carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and also in the calculation of many public policies such as taxes and social security.

“Municipal, state and federal taxes are updated every year according to the size of the population and the years with zero endings are the great reference years of the Federal Audit Court to calculate this. If these numbers aren’t correct, you can both hurt states and municipalities without being fair in allocating resources. Taxes are an issue that is extremely sensitive to population counts,” explains Contel. In the case of Social Security, both public and private, it is necessary to have a very well done statistical parameter of the Brazilian population to estimate how much will be paid in retirement or other social benefits for the population as a whole. Without these more precise numbers, there is difficulty in executing a fair social security policy.

With the repeated delays, lags and scrapping, the reliability and accuracy of the census were threatened: “It could leave millions of citizens in a certain geostatistical invisibility, credible information will not be produced on a large population contingent and a significant portion of the Brazilian territory, especially where it is located. the most vulnerable population. This will make it impossible to carry out more focused and efficient public policies of a social nature”, says Contel. As a result, investment in policies to improve the lives of the population is threatened, as the specialist adds: “All these resources spent on producing information are, in essence, investments so that public policies are more effective and that development socio-economic development and the reduction of social inequalities are achieved. It’s not a cost