Extreme Heat and Heavy Rainfall: Clear Indicators of Shifting Climate Patterns
El Niño has been causing intense effects on national climate change, along with the recent heat wave observed in the country. The possibility of the current phenomenon evolving into a super El Niño has been causing concern among specialists in the field, as the effects of the event have already are felt with intensity on the current scale.
In the coming days, record temperatures are expected to reach several cities, creating a debate about the effects of this scenario with the arrival of spring and, subsequently, summer. Pedro Luiz Côrtes, professor at the School of Communications and Arts (ECA) and the Institute of Energy and Environment (IEE) at USP, assesses that this century’s climate does not behave as it did in the past, so seasons with good definitions do not appear as a reality today.
Changes
Research carried out by IAG (Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences) and Inmet present some differences in their data, but reveal that the climate in the city of São Paulo is changing. “We have a tendency towards an increase in temperature and we also have a very interesting trend from a scientific point of view, which is a reduction in weaker rains and an increase in the tendency for very concentrated rains in short periods of time”, adds the expert.
Furthermore, it is possible to observe that these rains do not occur in a distributed manner. Many people comment that it is not possible to say that climate change is happening, as these studies have only been carried out recently — in comparison with the time in Earth’s geological history. However, the professor explains that there are scientific tools that allow us to evaluate how the Earth has evolved over the last 300,000 years.
Thus, in drilling in Antarctica with ice samples from underground lakes, it is possible to evaluate remnants of the atmosphere from very ancient times with information on CO2 content, salinity and temperature. Fossil analysis also contributes to understanding how the climate behaved in different areas. “We have tools to assess how the climate has evolved and everything indicates that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports are right in pointing out that it has changed”, assesses Côrtes.
El Niño
The professor also explains that, to date, the behavior of El Niño can be considered normal, therefore, the major problem being highlighted by the IPCC is the absence of a precise indication that climate change is significantly interfering with this phenomenon or in La Niña — which are natural.
It is possible to observe, on the other hand, that the changes interfere in the intensity of the phenomena resulting from these events. In the last La Niña, for example, the presence of a very intense drought was noted in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and the current El Niño, which has the possibility of evolving into a super El Niño, is already generating very serious consequences. intense, such as the rains that are happening in the south of the country and the heat waves. Côrtes explains that these effects occur as a result of El Niño, which increases rainfall in the South region and causes its reduction in the North and Northeast.
Finally, it is possible to observe that, in São Paulo, this phenomenon would contribute to a summer with high temperatures and intense and poorly distributed rains, in addition to disrupting planting in different regions.