India’s EV market can touch $100 bn revenue by 2030 if key issues addressed: Report
India’s electric vehicle (EV) market has the potential to achieve over 40 per cent penetration with $100 billion revenue by 2030, a substantial increase from the current 5 per cent penetration, if the policymakers address some key challenges, a new report showed on Thursday.
This growth is expected to be driven by strong adoption (over 45 per cent) in both two-wheeler (2W) and three-wheeler (3W) categories, with four-wheelers (cars) penetration projected to grow to more than 20 per cent, according to the report by Bain & Company and Blume Ventures.
However, several structural challenges need to be addressed to achieve this potential across five themes – new product development, go-to-market/distribution, customer segment prioritisation, software development, and charging infrastructure, the findings showed.
India significantly lags other geographies on charging infrastructure, with roughly 200+ EVs per commercial charging point in the country, as compared to 20 in the US and less than 10 in China.
“India needs both slow and fast-charging infrastructure, through establishing more charging points in existing EV areas, as well as widening pin-code coverage to reduce range anxiety,” said the report.
Electric two-wheeler (E2W) market penetration can grow from 5 per cent to 45 per cent by 2030, provided original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) develop mid-segment scooter products to enable over 50 per cent penetration in scooter segment and introduce breakthrough entry-level motorcycle offerings.
“This will also require changes across the ecosystem – from reimagined distribution model, online customer engagement (community-led D2C), a scientific secondary market to localised supply chain, after sales model, and charging infrastructure,” the report mentioned.
Electric four-wheeler (E4W) market is expected to initially take off with fleet before passenger segment inflects. This will require fleet-specific EV models (entry-level cars in mass category) at price points comparable to corresponding ICE products, said the report.
“OEM-led distribution networks (to demonstrate the benefits of EVs over ICE models despite higher pricing) and B2B partnerships in the fleet, will be critical to scale. Software will become an increasingly important differentiator for OEMs,” it added.
OEMs will need a deep understanding of customer segments to build EVs that meet their needs, especially with respect to range and performance. In addition, for better economics, OEMs may need to reduce “nice to have” features from existing premium models when subsidies expire, said the report.
Software can help OEMs materially improve their economics by adding new revenue streams and simultaneously improving vehicle performance. “For example, OEMs can leverage software to enhance power delivery, optimise battery management based on vehicle usage to increase battery life, etc. Global EV OEMs like Tesla extensively use software to enable superior safety, battery management and improve the overall customer driving experience,” the report mentioned.