University of Johannesburg Study Unveils Complex Dynamics Shaping Voter Choices in South Africa’s National Election
This year South Africa marks 30 years of democracy and its seventh national election on Wednesday, 29 May 2024. The election is touted as one of the most competitive elections since the establishment of democracy. Various polls predict that the African National Congress (ANC) which has governed the country since 1994, may lose its majority. As voters head to the polls, 315 political parties are registered for the election at national and provincial levels. How will voters make their choices? What factors are likely to influence their decision making?
The latest research by the Centre for Social Development in Africa (CDSA), shows that voter choice is not based on only one factor but a combination of many complex and intersecting factors. Social attitudes, political beliefs, socio-economic issues and a desire for a better life are but some of the reasons for their party-political preferences. The research shares findings from the latest survey on voting behaviour, which tries to answer the question why people vote the way they do. The research report titled ‘Factors determining voter choice in South Africa’s 2024 national general elections’ is co-authored by Leila Patel, Yolanda Sadie and Jaclyn de Klerk, at the University of Johannesburg VOTER CHOICE RESEARCH BRIEF
The results of the 2023 survey are compared with findings from four previous surveys conducted in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.
THE CURRENT STUDY
In the wave 5 survey (conducted at the end of 2023), there was particular interest in understanding the role of social grants and concerns about socioeconomic wellbeing in citizens’ party choice. There has been an exponential expansion of social grant recipients since 2020 after the introduction of the temporary Social Relief of Distress Grant (SRD). The SRD was extended annually until March 2025. The SRD included adults and youth who did not previously receive social grants. Against this backdrop of social grant expansion, the researchers wanted to know whether grant receipt and fear of loss of grants if a person voted for the opposition would be influential in this election. Also, whether the declining socio-economic situation in the country such as high unemployment, poor service delivery and corruption among others would be more pertinent in a citizen’s decision of who to vote for. These factors together with other explanations of voting behaviour are also explored.
The aim of the research was to determine what influences voter choices. The sample is nationally representative of the population and was stratified by province and smaller geographic areas. The sample size is 3511. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in respondents’ home languages. Field work was conducted in the last quarter of 2023. The sample was weighted to the national population with an error margin of 1.8%. The data was collected by Ipsos Public Affairs and was analysed by the authors.
EXPLANATIONS OF VOTER CHOICE
The authors built a model drawing on different theories of voting behaviour including local and international research. These included the rational choice theory that argues that voters act in their own best interest and make strategic choices that align with their needs. The clientelist theory is also relevant as public assistance such as social grants are viewed as a form of vote buying. While on the other hand, the sociological model looks at the impact of demographic factors such as age, gender, race, location, and income among others as determinants of voter choice. To these explanations, the authors added other explanations such as socio-economic factors e.g. jobs, services, and the desire for a better life as worthy of investigation. Other factors considered are governance, as it relates to trust in institutions, in parliament and in the ANC government; party loyalty (the party that brought freedom and democracy to the country), party leadership (of any party) and trust in President Ramaphosa sometimes referred to as the ‘Ramaphosa factor’. All these factors were tested in a statistical regression model to ascertain whether these factors including grant receipt and fear of loss of a grant has a bearing on voter choices in the 2024 election. The survey questions are listed at the end of this press release.
FINDINGS
First, the findings on party choice and reasons for choice of a party are presented. Thereafter voter preferences of grant recipients are discussed followed by the views of the participants on coalitions. In the second part of the findings, the outcome of the statistical regression model is presented and the top reasons of voter choice that are statistically significant are discussed including those that are not significant.
PARTY CHOICE
At the end of 2023, the ANC polled 33%; EFF 19%) DA 15%, other parties 12%. A further 21% did not provide responses and they were excluded from the statistical analysis. See figure 1 below.
Party choice in a subsequent Ipsos poll released in April 2024 placed the respective parties as follows: ANC 40.2%; DA 21.9%; EFF 11.5%; MKP 8.4%; IFP 4.4%, Action SA 3.4% and other parties 8.4%. The study is not a poll, and many polls are continuing to be released. The authors are interested in why the participants chose their party.
REASONS FOR PARTY CHOICE
The five top reasons for choosing their party were: that the party will create jobs (55%); because the party promises to improve people’s lives (49%); because the party will improve service delivery (48%); because the party pays social grants (44%) and because I trust this party (40%) and because the party brought freedom and democracy to country (40%). The four top reasons were all related to promoting socio-economic wellbeing.
MORE GRANT RECIPIENTS ARE NOW CHOOSING AN OPPOSITON PARTY
Grant recipients show marginally stronger support for the ANC (8%). This is up by 1% in 2020 (7%) and up from 5% in 2017. This is a shift from what was found in the previous four surveys.
MOST PARTICIPANTS ARE NOT IN FAVOUR OF A NATIONAL COALITION GOVERNMENT
39% of all respondents did not favour a national coalition government while 38% said that it depends on who the coalition partners are. A minority (23%) were not in favour of a coalition government at national level. ANC supporters were least in enamoured with the idea of a coalition government, followed by the EFF & the DA. Smaller parties too were sceptical.
DETERMINANTS OF PARTY CHOICE
The results of the statistical regression model are presented here and the three key results are discussed.
1.. Socio-economic wellbeing is not a predictor of party choice.
This factor was made up of three questions: I am motivated to choose this party because it pays social grants, it promises to improve people’s lives and it will improve service delivery.
Contrary to what one would expect, there was not a statistically significant relationship between socio-economic wellbeing and party choice. This should not be interpreted to mean that it is unimportant to voters but rather suggests that they anticipate that by voting for their party, their lives would improve. It also implies that there are other explanations for their party choice.
2. Fear of loss of a social grant if one voted for the opposition is not a predictor of party choice
A major shift has occurred since the research began. The relationship between fear of loss of a grant and voter choice was significant over four successive surveys. However, this relationship was not a predictor in the 2023 survey. Some of the reasons may be related to the fact that women and the elderly were the largest number of beneficiaries previously. From 2020, the grants system expanded and included between 6 million and 10 million recipients at different times. Now, more adults, youth and unemployed people are included in the system. Grant recipients may also feel more secure in their right to social assistance. Additionally, many opposition parties have endorsed social grants in their party manifestoes. It is likely that public discourse about the negative effects of grants is changing and that the value of grants to reduce poverty is being recognised.
3. Six top reasons for party choice.
There are six key reasons for party choice.
Trust in institutions – governance: respondents who have a high-level of trust in institutions like Parliament, the Presidency and the ANC government are 2,5 times more likely to vote for the ANC. Up from twice as likely in 2020.
Commitment to rooting out corruption:respondents who value parties that are committed to addressing corruption are 61% more likely to vote for the opposition.
Trust in the party leader: if respondents trust their party leader, they are 37% more likely to vote for the ANC.
Party loyalty:for respondents who value the party that brought freedom and democracy, they are 59% more likely to vote for the ANC, up from 26% in 2020.
The Ramaphosa factor:respondents who trust in President Ramaphosa are 77% more likely to vote for the ANC over an opposition party, up from 60% in 2020.
Socio-demographic factors: demographic factors like age, race and gender also play a role. Older people (aged 35 – 60) are 55% more likely to vote for the ANC when compared to a someone aged 18 – 34, up from 29% in 2020.
CONCLUSIONS – FACTORS THAT ARE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE VOTER DECISIONS ON 29 MAY
The top predictors in 2024 are perception of governance (trust in institutions), corruption, party loyalty, trust in party leader and trust in the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa.
These predictors have largely been consistent over the last five surveys but with some changes in response to the context in the country at the time.
The key takeouts are that those who are concerned about corruption are more likely to vote for an opposition party (61%).
In this election the youth vote will matter greatly, with 11.7 million young people registered to vote. In addition, youth are 1.5 times more likely to vote for the opposition as they are less attached to the past.
We also expect the women’s vote will also matter as 34% are more likely to vote ANC. More than half of registered voters are women, and few parties target the women’s vote.
Finally, people in rural areas are 32% more likely to vote ANC.