BANGKOK – Thailand’s economy is expected to expand by 2.9 percent in 2022, supported by private consumption and tourism recovery. However, negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine and lockdown in China highlights Thailand’s oil dependence and vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions. Adopting a more circular economy approach can help promote growth that is more sustainable and more resilient to external shocks, according to the Thailand Economic Monitor published today.
The economy is expected to gain momentum in the second half and reach pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2022, given the decline in COVID-19 cases and the further relaxation of border restrictions in Thailand and other countries. Tourist arrivals are projected to increase to 6.0 million arrivals in 2022, up from 0.4 million in 2021, and reach 24 million, or around 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels, by 2024. As a result, growth of 4.3 percent and 3.9 percent is projected for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Headline inflation is projected to stay at a 14-year high over the course of 2022 at 5.2 percent, with core inflation at 2.3 percent. Exports of goods are expected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2022, slowing down after a strong outcome in 2021 at 18.8 percent, reflecting the softening global demand, and the prolonged global supply chain disruptions.
“As Thailand moves into the recovery phase, it will be important to make progress on fiscal consolidation while rebalancing public spending towards public investment to help support the government’s vision to build back better and greener,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, Senior Economist for Thailand, World Bank.
According to the report, the war in Ukraine may aggravate poverty in Thailand through high food and energy prices. The World Bank estimates that a 10 percent increase in the global prices of food would raise the poverty rate by 1.4 percentage points and an increase of 10 percent in energy prices would raise the poverty rate by 0.2 percentage points.
Economic modeling suggests that an accelerated transition towards a circular economy could boost output and jobs, increase GDP by about 1.2 percent and create nearly 160,000 additional jobs by 2030, representing about 0.3 percent of total employment. It can also contribute to taming high and volatile commodity prices, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 5 percent by 2030.
“With rising demand for resources in the domestic market, Thailand could add the circular economy approach to the pool of policy solutions that can decouple growth from a resource-intensive economy,” said Jaime Frias, Senior Economist, World Bank. “A concerted public and private response, along with targeted reforms, will be necessary to unlock Thailand’s potential in this area.”
The report recommends several actions to support the circular economy in Thailand including awareness building on resource intensity, pollution, and resource degradation in the country. Along with this intervention, building institutional capacity and inter/intra agency coordination is a must, as well as providing a supporting framework to share knowledge and innovation and create further incentives for businesses to adopt circular business models. This involves incorporating circular economy into public procurement, developing sector-specific road maps, providing physical and digital infrastructure, and creating business support schemes.