Ecosystem Collapse Possible as Early Arctic Melt Threatens Fragile Habitats
Located in one of the coldest regions in the world, the Arctic covers approximately 21 million square kilometers, 65% of which is made up of the Arctic Ocean. However, climate change has been causing significant changes to the region – sooner than expected, the Arctic could have its first ice-free summer. According to a study published in the British magazine Nature , the first ice-free day in the region could happen by the 2030s. Professor Paulo Artaxo, from the Department of Applied Physics at the USP Physics Institute, warns about the impacts that this melting of glaciers could have on the environment: “It is important to realize that the Arctic is one of the regions that is warming the fastest on the planet. And the forecast from the climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate a temperature increase of 7° to 8° for the Arctic over the next 30 to 40 years, depending on the emissions scenario. This is really impacting the Arctic ecosystem in a very strong way, with the melting of sea ice and also with the melting of continental glaciers, the melting of these continental glaciers causes sea level to rise,” he says.
The researchers analyzed changes from 1979 to 2019, comparing different satellite data and climate models to assess how Arctic sea ice was changing, and they found that the decline in sea ice was largely the result of human-caused pollution that is still warming the planet today.
Consequences of an ice-free summer
With the alteration of their natural habitat, ecosystems can collapse. Glaciers are important habitats for several species. Melting can threaten biodiversity, affecting food chains and entire ecosystems. It is not only fauna and flora that suffer from global warming, but society as well. Paulo Artaxo explains the global consequences that the melting of this region can cause and adds the difficulty of accurately predicting these changes.
“This melting will change ocean circulation, which is very important because ocean circulation strongly redistributes heat from tropical regions to temperate regions, such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic. This will bring about changes in temperature distribution, changes in precipitation distribution and rainfall across the world,” he says.
Permafrost , or permanently frozen soil, plays a significant role in discussions about global warming. It stores large amounts of carbon in the form of organic matter that has been trapped in the ice for thousands of years. When permafrost begins to thaw due to rising global temperatures, this carbon is released in the form of carbon dioxide and methane, two potent greenhouse gases.
This process of releasing gases can accelerate global warming, creating a vicious cycle: warming causes the permafrost to thaw , which in turn releases more greenhouse gases, further increasing temperatures. The professor comments on the impact of this warming process and the difficulty of making accurate predictions. “It is such a drastic change that today it is difficult to make a highly accurate prediction of what these changes will be, where and when. However, given the magnitude of the Arctic’s influence on the global climate, we are certain that this impact will be very significant. So, we have large quantities of methane not stored in the ice over the Arctic Ocean, but stored in what we call permafrost , which are continental regions of Siberia and Canada, mainly where bacteria and organic matter that have been there for millions of years, when decomposing, emit methane into the atmosphere”, he reiterates.
Is there still time?
Although the damage to the planet is already irreversible, it is still necessary to find ways to try to slow down the melting of the Arctic. To this end, Paulo Artaxo recommends that human actions be changed immediately. “Global warming, which has already exceeded 1.5° Celsius on average across the planet, is causing the melting of the Arctic ice and the ice stored in Greenland, Canada and Siberia to be irreversible. Therefore, there is no way today to stop the warming that we have caused over the last 30, 40 years. However, reducing greenhouse gas emissions today is the best way to prevent future climate disasters like the melting of the Arctic ice. We have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we have to end the exploration of fossil fuels across the planet and we have to stop the deforestation of tropical forests like the Amazon. This is an urgent task if we want to reduce the impacts of climate change on the global climate of our planet,” he concludes.