Hindalco leads rally in metal stocks

Metal stocks are up in trade on Wednesday led by Hindalco which gained more than 3 per cent.

BSE Metal index is the top gainer with Hindalco up 3.13 per cent. Other metal stocks also gained with SAIL up more than 1 per cent, JSW Steel up more than 1 per cent, Tata Steel up more than 1 per cent.

The global aluminium market could move to a balance in 2023-25 from a modest deficit in 2021-22, JM Financial Institutional Securities said in a report.

China / World-ex-China markets are expected to play out differently over 2023-2025.

China aluminium market’s surplus could narrow through 2023-25 due to an anticipated pickup in demand and capacity curbs. China’s aluminium-production growth could lose momentum going forward, reflecting a capacity cap of 45mn tons a year set by the government in 2017.

The surplus in 2024 could reduce significantly from CY23 levels of 0.7mn tons, if demand on account of infra spending and expansion in green sectors (EV/Solar) pick pace, the report said.

However, World-ex-China supply could grow faster than China, as new capacity in Canada, Indonesia and India gets commissioned. Green expansion demand, power supplies in China, together with European smelter restarts and announcements of project approvals, are key catalysts for aluminium market balance.

China-Led demand is likely to bring in an overall balance to the markets, in our view. Lower inventory levels coupled with positive macros (dollar index/rate cuts) is likely to support aluminium prices — in the range of USD2,200-2400/t, in our view.

“Consequently, we bake in an LME price assumption of USD2,300/ton,” it said.