IBGE data finds shrinking metropolises reveal population displacement to smaller cities

After two years of delay, caused by the Bolsonaro government’s budget cuts and the pandemic situation, the first data from the 2022 Demographic Census began to be released in the last week of June. One of the unprecedented data collected by the IBGE is the shrinking population in large cities. Thus, even if cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro continue to grow, there is a relative decrease in population in capitals like Salvador, with a drop of 9.6%, and Natal, with 6.5%. At the same time, medium and small cities have received more and more residents in search of a better quality of life.

Motivations
Alex Abiko, professor of Urban and Housing Management at the USP Polytechnic School, explains that this phenomenon of population displacement to smaller cities can be seen as a reflection of the worsening quality of life in large centers. Aspects such as the increase in violence and the cost of living, in addition to the worsening of public services in the metropolises are considered by residents who decide to move.

Thus, residents establish a comparison with the overloaded scenario of big cities with an idea of ​​a better quality of life in small cities. “However, I would like to state that this is more a perception of residents in relation to medium-sized cities, rather than what is actually happening”, emphasizes Alex Abiko.

Consequences
Migration from large cities to smaller cities will inevitably provoke changes in the urban and public functioning of both, even if with different effects. For example, according to the professor, the emptying of large centers can be beneficial, since, with a smaller number of people using the same infrastructure, there can be an increase in the quality of life.

On the other hand, there is greater difficulty for smaller cities to deal with the arrival of a larger population volume than supported by their public policies. Abiko comments that this possible overload is explained by the fact that there are not enough resources and infrastructure to deal with the phenomenon. Thus, this is not a lack of planning, as the government does not expect sudden population growth.

“This movement could create a big problem in medium-sized cities, which until then had a good quality of life”, predicts the professor when warning about a possible overload of public policies.

Scenario
Despite this population loss in the metropolis being considered unprecedented by the new IBGE study, the expert explains that a worldwide trend of deceleration in population growth had already been detected. It can be seen that this decline is directly related to the phenomenon of urbanization in developing countries.

Thus, from the process of urbanization of cities, a series of transformation trends can be noticed, such as the decrease in the size of Brazilian families. Data that can be related to the 18.7% drop in the number of people per household, according to the 2022 Census.