ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook survey Q3 2020
According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup, the survey of 695 employers across India indicates cautious hiring plans for the upcoming three months. Sectors which will lead the job market are likely to be the Mining & Construction, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sectors. The strongest hiring pace is recorded in the Medium sized organizations followed by the large sized and small sized organizations. From a region perspective, North and South regions indicate a more positive outlook compared to the West and East.
The encouraging news, however, is that India features among the top 4 countries out of 44 countries that projected a positive hiring trend-the other three are Japan, China and Taiwan who has a Net Employment Outlook of +11%, +3% and +3% respectively for Q3, 2020 – July to September, 2020.
Mr. Sandeep Gulati, Group Managing Director of ManpowerGroup India said, “Corporate India is rationalizing its workforce in response to the economic slowdown. It is indeed a “wait and watch” game as organizations are gearing up for the post lockdown era where they anticipate an upsurge in demand. India is optimistic and the Government’s stimulus economy package may boost the economic activities across sectors. The Government does have its focus on the employment ratio of the country. Both these elements may bring a fresh ray of hope for the Job seekers before the end of this financial year.”
Technology has been the game changer during the Lockdown period with corporates moving to virtual meetings, conferences and even upskilling programs. The new normal is dynamic and ever evolving”, added Mr. Gulati.
Interviewing was carried out during the exceptional circumstances of the COVID-19 outbreak. The survey findings for the third quarter of 2020 are likely to reflect the impact of the global health emergency, and may be notably different to previous quarters.
Over the last few months, there has been a transformation of the employment pattern and the current scenario of employment in India is fluid and depends on the demand generation in the new normal. Technology will continue to play a key role in the post lockdown eco-system of work and the business landscape. And companies have embraced the change, left with no other option for business continuity.
According to our survey, India’s job market, overall, looks grim and stands at +5% when compared to all employment outlook surveys conducted till date.
Workforce gains are anticipated in all seven industry sectors during the upcoming quarter. Mining & Construction employers report the strongest hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. Respectable payroll gains are also forecast in two sectors with Outlooks of +9% in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and +6% in the Public Administration & Education sector, the Transportation & Utilities sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. The most adversely impacted sector are the Service Sector and Manufacturing Sector with indicated hiring intentions of +4% and +2% respectively when compared to the previous quarter has a noteworthy decline of 9 and 7 percentage points respectively.
Hiring prospects have generally declined in all the sectors.
India’s Regional Trends
A regional comparison of the trends show a stronger outlook in North and South with net employment outlook of +5% whereas West and East anticipate slower pace with the new employment outlook of +3%.
ManpowerGroup interviewed over 34,000 employers in 43 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in the third quarter of 2020. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2020 as compared to the current quarter?” Interviewing was carried out during the exceptional circumstances of the COVID-19 outbreak. The survey findings for the third quarter of 2020 are likely to reflect the impact of the global health emergency, and the subsequent economic shutdown in many countries.
Employers in 35 of the 43 countries and territories surveyed by ManpowerGroup for the third quarter of 2020 expect to reduce payrolls in the period up to the end of September 2020, while payroll gains are expected in seven countries and a flat labor market is anticipated in one.
In a comparison with the second quarter of 2020, hiring prospects weaken in 42 of the 43 countries and territories, while no change is reported in one. Employers in all 43 countries and territories report weaker hiring sentiment when compared with this time one year ago. The strongest hiring pace is anticipated in Japan, India, the United States, China and Taiwan, while employers in Singapore, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and South Africa forecast the weakest labor markets.
In four of the seven Asia Pacific countries and territories surveyed, employers anticipate an increase in payrolls during the next three months, while a dip in workforce levels is expected in two and flat hiring activity in one. When compared with the second quarter of 2020, hiring plans weaken in six countries and territories, but are unchanged in one, while employers report weaker hiring intentions in all seven when compared with this time one year ago. Japanese and Indian employers anticipate the strongest labor markets in the region, while the weakest hiring activity is expected in Singapore and Australia.