Markets trading at a premium to current fair value; fund managers cautiously optimistic

“We remain cautiously optimistic on the market from a medium-term perspective. Our caution is because markets are trading at a premium to its current fair value,” said Vinay Paharia, CIO, PGIM India Mutual Fund.

“However, this fair value is likely to grow at a strong pace in the medium-term, hence we remain optimistic from a medium to long term perspective,” Paharia said in a note.

“Globally, we are seeing growth slow-down in developed markets due to elevated interest rates along coupled with sticky inflation situation. This will have an adverse impact on export-oriented businesses,” said the note.

In India, uptick in discretionary demand in the ongoing festive season and measures by the government to boost rural consumption are the key near-term monitorable.

“As we inch closer to 2024, we would see increased volatility due to the Union Elections scheduled in May 2024. We are of the view that these are transient factors and would advise long-term investors to look beyond these near-term headwinds to benefit from the long-term India story,” the note read.

In October 2023, markets went into consolidation mode with the NIFTY 50 index declining 2.8 per cent for the month.

The month saw broad based weakness in global markets led by the Israel-Hamas conflict, rising US bond yields, and concerns about potential rate hikes dampening the global investor sentiment.

NIFTY Midcap 100 index and NIFTY Smallcap 100 index saw a correction of 4.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent for the month, respectively.

During the month, indices for healthcare, metals and mining, and financials underperformed the broader market, while indices for realty, FMCG and auto outperformed.