Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (UC): They warn that the rapid rise in new cases is beginning to be reflected in an increase in hospitalizations

The ICOVID Chile team , an initiative led by the University of Chile , the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción , presented its 60th report with analysis and data on the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained up to on Saturday, October 9, 2021 , provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.

According to the report, we are facing the highest weekly growth rate in 2021, with a national burden indicator of 4.88 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants; 30.3% higher than the previous week when this indicator rose to 3.75 . The value of 4.88 is still in the yellow zone (values ​​between 1 and 5), although it is close to the orange zone (values ​​between 5 and 10). In short, the report reads, “new cases have been growing for five consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 136%.”

The professor of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Chile and member of the ICOVID team, Eduardo Engel, explains that “new cases rose 30% last week, the highest weekly growth rate in 2021. The number of cases new prices is still relatively low, but there is concern that it will grow for five consecutive weeks. The sustained increase in new cases begins to be reflected in a greater number of hospitalizations, although it is not perceived in the ICU occupancy indicators and deaths ” .

At the regional level, the load indicator takes the highest values ​​in Arica and Parinacota (9.47), Tarapacá (7.01), Aysén (6.38), Metropolitana (6.27), Antofagasta (5.35) and Atacama (5.12). All the above regions are in the orange zone. In the remaining regions, the burden indicator is less than 5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (yellow zone), with the sole exception of Magallanes (0.29) which is in the green zone. Meanwhile, the regions with the highest growth rate of the load indicator during the last week are Los Ríos (56.6%), Metropolitana (48.0%), Aysén (36.2%), Valparaíso (35, 6%) and Ñuble (32.7%).

Likewise, the transmission rate (effective R) at the national level rose from 1,087 to 1,162 in the last week, a value significantly higher than 1, “which indicates that the epidemic is in an expansion stage,” the researchers warn.