Rice University expert says debt-ceiling decision could complicate foreign policy

If the national debt limit is not raised, the Biden administration’s foreign policy efforts could be impacted, according to an expert from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Joe Barnes, the Bonner Means Baker Fellow, argues in a new issue brief that a Republican-led House could complicate President Biden’s ability to achieve his goals regarding China and the Russia-Ukraine war.

“There is some talk of trying to get the limit raised during the Congress’s lame-duck session,” he wrote. “If these efforts fail, House Republicans are positioned to prompt a fiscal crisis, much as they did in 2011 and 2013, by insisting on spending cuts in return for raising the debt limit.”

The U.S. government is projected to hit the limit — about $31.7 billion — early next year, which would hinder its ability to meet financial obligations.

“(Spending) cuts could fall on foreign affairs agencies or potentially even the Department of Defense,” wrote Barnes. “But, perhaps more importantly, a crisis triggered by a failure to raise a debt limit would signal, to enemies and partners alike, that the United States — for all our fleets and fighter wings — is a dysfunctional state.”

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So far, Biden has received bipartisan support in Congress for $66 billion in emergency appropriations for Ukraine. His support among Democrats remains rock-solid, argues Barnes. Republican support has been more mixed, with some voting against some of the aid packages. In October, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said there would be “no blank check” for Ukraine should Republicans take control of the House.

“This could get ugly if House Republicans press for concessions elsewhere — on border control, for instance — in return for U.S. aid to Ukraine,” Barnes wrote. “The temptation to do so might increase should the war linger on in an ugly stalemate, a distinct possibility.”

Though Biden should find more support regarding China, Barnes said. Republicans could hold hearings on whether the COVID-19 epidemic was caused by a leak from a Chinese laboratory or pass aggressive resolutions regarding Taiwan. Both would irritate Beijing but not cause a rift in bilateral relations, he argued.