University of Massachusetts Amherst: New National UMass Poll Reports Americans’ Views on Midterm Elections, Issues
The results from the latest wide-ranging nationwide UMass Poll found that American voters expressed fear, anger and worry about the upcoming midterm elections, and that President Joe Biden’s approval rating, while still low, may be on the rebound. The poll also found that one-third of Americans believe some tenets of the ‘Great Replacement’ right-wing conspiracy theory, two-thirds support gay marriage, majorities support marijuana legalization and federal pardons, and pluralities support gun control legislation and federal abortion legalization
Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) and 65% of Republican voters said that they will be angry – and three-quarters of both party’s voters said they will be afraid – if the opposing party takes control of Congress, the poll of 1,000 respondents found. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters (64%) and two in five Republicans (41%) are concerned about the possibility of violence associated with the elections.
The poll also found that while Biden’s job approval inched up to 40% for the first time in 2022, more than half of the country say it would be better off for the nation if both he and former President Donald Trump stepped away from politics in 2024. The president, who held a 51% approval in an April 2021 UMass Poll and was at 41% last December, had seen his rating sink as low as 38% in a UMass Poll conducted this past May. His current overall approval is nearly equal to the 41% of the poll’s respondents who expressed “strong disapproval” for his performance in office.
Tatishe Nteta
“While not the great bounce back that some Democrats may have hoped for, President Biden has indeed stabilized his falling approval numbers from earlier this spring,” says Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “In the midst of falling approval numbers, President Biden went back to the well and followed through on a number of campaign promises, from appointing Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court to forgiving thousands of dollars in student loan debt. This coupled with his legislative success in passing a truncated version of his Build Back Better bill has seemingly increased Biden’s approval numbers, most notably among young people, women and independents, constituencies that Biden will need to turn out in support of the Democratic Party if Biden and the Democrats have any hope of maintaining control of the U.S. Congress on November 8.”
Jesse Rhodes
“Americans seem pretty dissatisfied with the leadership of both the Democratic and Republican parties,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. “In a reflection of their negative evaluation of his economic management, more than half of Americans (52%) think it would be better if Joe Biden doesn’t run for reelection in 2024. At the same time, though, they are not clamoring for the return of former President Donald Trump, either. More than half of those polled (53%) say it would be better if Trump stepped away from politics, as well.”
The poll asked for respondents’ views on numerous issues facing the country, including the economy, race, immigration, gay marriage, and more. Among the findings, one-third of Americans and two-thirds of Republicans endorse some form of the tenets of the “Great Replacement” theory, the right-wing conspiracy theory that espouses that the growth in the number of immigrants in the U.S. means the country is in danger of losing its culture and identity.
Raymond La Raja
“We can see why immigration is such a boiling issue,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. “One-third of Americans believe that the growth in the number of immigrants in the country means that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity. But 41% of voters disagree. A remarkable 37% of voters think some elected officials want more immigration to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them, while 33% disagree. Grappling with immigration policy will continue to be among the most challenging tasks for political leadership. There is no dodging the strong emotions that drive people’s politics on this issue.”
The poll found 60% of Republicans, and 64% of Trump voters, say the growth in the number of immigrants in the country means that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity, while 66% of Republicans and 72% of Trump voters believe that elected officials want more immigration to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them.