University of São Paulo Research Maps Out Approaches and Hurdles in Environmental Disaster Management

With climate change gaining more and more momentum, environmental and economic slowdown issues are taking on unprecedented importance. However, they depend on a joint, global effort. The vice-president of the Institute of Advanced Studies at USP (IEA), Marcos Buckeridge, first of all, emphasizes the urgency of the issue: “Climate change is happening so fast that what we expected for 2050 we now have to think about in 2040, and I believe that soon we will have to start thinking about 2030.”

A globally recognized reference are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (UN). Based on them, research centers propose policies and social and scientific innovations to solve the problem. This is also one of the IEA’s branches of study .

Moving from local research to global resolution, however, is quite complex. One of the most concrete goals currently is that of the European Commission to become carbon neutral by 2050. The professor says that congregations of this type can “accelerate the decision-making process” and are a way to establish an organized plan.

He explains: “If we have groups of governments that agree with each other and work together, as is the case in the European Community, the system becomes simpler and the gains and losses become clearer.” The high investment and commitment that the measures require are a reason for caution on the part of governments.

Therefore, he emphasizes the importance of international treaties, such as the Paris Agreement, even if they are currently neglected. By defining objective and joint actions, “the group will think like this: ‘I will lose a little here, you will lose a little there, but in the end, we will all win’”, comments the expert.

Mitigation and adaptation

Eduardo Viola, a professor at the same institute and an expert in international politics, has a more pessimistic view. First, he differentiates between mitigation and adaptation policies. Mitigation involves reducing carbon emissions, reforestation and any measure that reduces global warming. Adaptation involves proposing measures to reduce the impact of the problem once it has been identified.

According to him, “what we will see is an increase in adaptation policy, because then there is no need for global cooperation.” Local disaster prevention should gain traction in policy, but efforts to actually mitigate climate change will not necessarily do so. “Adaptation policy has a direct impact on the local environment; mitigation policy does not, it depends directly on the dynamics of the world,” explains Viola.

What he warns about is that countries will want to jump on the bandwagon of others, expecting them to undertake the mitigation process while the local concern is adaptation. From the point of view of perpetuating power, adapting to changes makes more sense than solving them.

Pessimistic scenario

The professor goes into more detail about the situation. Not only is there disregard for global warming, but there are also cases of active interest in it. He gives the example of Russia, which, according to him, has been a “predator” of the environment. “Part of the Russian elite believes that it will benefit from climate change because it will increase the area of ​​arable land in Siberia (a cold and inhospitable region in the north of the country),” adds Viola.

China and India are others that continue to emit a lot of pollutants. The United States, which is already not very green, could get even worse if Donald Trump is elected. The scenario, as he comments, is dramatic. The effect described is of a spiral, in which each country just wants to adapt to the changes, and the situation gets worse and worse. For the professor, countries and large companies will continue to compete with each other, and it is difficult to imagine global cooperation with these interests in mind.