University of São Paulo Study Reveals Shifts in São Paulo’s Demographic Dynamics Over Past Decade

According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the city of São Paulo is responsible for being home to 11,451,245 Brazilians in 2022.

The study Changes in population growth in the capital , carried out by the Seade Foundation based on data from the 2022 IBGE Census, mapped all regions of this capital and indicated those that grew the most and those that decreased the most in population in the last decade.

According to the research, between 2010 and 2022, the districts with population decline are located more in the expanded center — in the north and east regions of the capital —, while the highest values ​​are found mainly in the south and far west.  

Historic

Around 1950, the capital of São Paulo recorded high growth rates, with an annual increase of 5.58%. In the 1980s, it grew at 1.15% per year and continued to slow down between 2010 and 2022, with a rate of just 0.15%.

In these seven decades, the number of residents of São Paulo has increased more than fivefold. However, in the last intercensal period — from 2010 to 2022 — growth was minimal, around 16,500 inhabitants per year.

With the analysis of the Census, it was seen that the distribution of the population across the districts of São Paulo also varied considerably: the demographic density ranges from 55.15 inhabitants/km², in Marsilac, to 26,130.08, in República.

On the other hand, in this period from 2010 to 2022, 46 of the capital’s 96 districts recorded population loss, a number much higher than that of the previous decade, when only 19 presented such a situation.

There were four districts that had growth rates above 2%: Barra Funda, with the highest, 7.3%; Marsilac, with 2.8%; Vila Andrade and Brás, tied, with 2.4%. In the previous period, ten districts surpassed the mark, with emphasis on Vila Andrade and Anhanguera, both with 5.6%.