University of São Paulo: USP publication takes stock of the horticultural sector in Brazil and brings perspectives for 2023
The cost of living crisis, the tightening of financial conditions in most countries, the invasion of Russia in Ukraine and the persistent covid-19 pandemic weigh on a limited economic scenario in 2023, according to the October report of the IMF (Monetary Fund International). The Fund predicts that world growth will slow down, from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and to 2.7% in 2023. Furthermore, the Brazilian economic outlook is not at all encouraging. The new government’s main challenge is to control spending, aiming to contain inflation for a sustainable path of falling interest rates, and thus manage to recover the purchasing power of Brazilians. With regard to food consumption in Brazil, “the expectation is for a cooling in food prices, given the recent devaluation of various inputs, including fertilizers”, Hortifruti Brasil , which brings the Yearbook 2022-2023. The publication is freely available at this link .
The publication recalls the main events of 2022 and presents projections for the horticultural sector in Brazil for 2023. Much more than a magazine, Hortifruti Brasil is the result of market research carried out by the Hortifruti Team, from the Center for Advanced Studies in Economics Applied (Cepea), from the Department of Economics, Administration and Sociology at the Luiz de Queiroz School of Agriculture (Esalq) at USP in Piracicaba Information is collected through direct contact with those who move the fruit and vegetable sector, such as producers, wholesalers and exporters, and these data are carefully studied by researchers and market analysts who are part of the Hortifruti Brasil team .
Since 2016, Hortifruti has made its content available on several digital platforms (website, social networks and mobile), making searches increasingly accessible and interactive. The novelty of this issue is that, as the magazine’s audience is already greater in the digital medium than in print, the magazine will also be in “Flip” format on the hfbrasil.org.br website . This means that readers can “flip through” the pages of the publication, just like the paper version. In addition, the printed magazine will continue to be distributed free of charge throughout Brazil in 2023, and there is also publication in an exclusive format for WhatsApp.
The magazine provides an overview of the market for 13 fruits and vegetables (such as carrots, lettuce, potatoes, onions, bananas, grapes and apples), which were monitored by the group, including perspectives for 2023 (in the sections for each crop). In the cover story, the assumptions for 2023 are shown, mainly those related to economic indicators in the global scenario and the renewal of the Brazilian government, in addition to the impacts caused by the weather and the increase in production costs. The online pages have been expanded and offer daily updates on prices, analyzes and industry news. In addition, users will have, at a click, complete price series of the 13 crops monitored, duly divided by region and market level.
Regarding domestic demands, for example, “food sales in supermarkets were better in the second half of 2022 compared to the first, according to the IBGE, reflecting the reduction in the number of unemployment combined with the greater injection of money into the economy (from the increase in emergency aid); however, demand could have been more heated if food prices had not risen so much in 2022, which, in turn, was linked to the high cost of production in the countryside”. For 2023, research by Hortifruti/Cepea shows a drop in production costs and more investments in the area, which reflects in improvements in the consumer’s purchasing power. Analyzing the external market, Brazilian exports performed well in 2022, but the volume should still be below that of 2021 when they reached records, both in volume and in revenue, favored by commercial and productive advances in the sector. As the researchers state, the sector’s biggest concern in 2023 is the drop in global economic activity and its possible negative impact on fresh fruit consumption.
The vegetable area closed 2022 above 2020 and 2021, partially offsetting the investment losses experienced during the most critical period of the pandemic. “This recent increase was driven by the tomato and potato industries and also by the partial recovery of lettuce and carrot areas. As for fruits, the estimate is for a slight drop in the area for 2022 compared to 2021. Despite the growth for mangoes and table grapes (influenced by heated exports), cultivated areas such as papaya, melon and watermelon should fall sharply. As for bananas and apples, investments remained stable in 2022. But the projection for 2023 indicates recovery in the group of fruits and vegetables, influenced by the increase in papaya and watermelon area, which are the crops that have most reduced investments in recent years . For the other fruits, the initial estimate is stability. As for vegetables, the increase in area should be concentrated in the industrial production of potatoes and tomatoes. In addition, there should be recovery in the onion area, and for lettuce and carrots, investments should remain stable in 2023.
According to Hortifruti Brasil, even with the forecast of growth in investments, the scenario is still one of caution. “The expectation of lower costs is good news for Brazilian producers. However, spending on inputs may change from region to region, due to the climate – the La Niña phenomenon should continue to result in above-average rainfall in the Northeast and below forecasts in the South of the country in the summer of 2023”. Despite more optimistic job news in Brazil, political and economic uncertainties should still limit economic growth forecasts, as experts point out, remembering that the export segment is not very encouraging either, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global rise in inflation. “Even in the face of this scenario, the Brazilian fruit and vegetable sector remains firm,
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