University of São Paulo Warns: Arrival of La Niña Could Impact Energy Generation and Agriculture in Brazil
With the beginning of autumn, the end of the El Niño phenomenon is also approaching, which was responsible for intense rains and droughts during the summer in 2023 and 2024. The expectation, however, is that another meteorological phenomenon will begin in the second half of the year. , La Niña, and professor Pedro Luiz Côrtes, from the School of Communications and Arts (ECA) and the Institute of Energy and Environment (IEE) at the University of São Paulo, analyzes what its impact should be on the country’s climate and production .
La Nina
According to the expert, the situation occurring this year is unusual, as the interval between El Niño and La Niña will be shorter than usual. He states that this period between the two phenomena, which is called neutrality, usually lasts many months, but this year it will only happen between the months of April and June.
According to the professor, El Niño generates drought in the North region and intense rains in the South region, as demonstrated by the recent Amazonian droughts and floods in the States of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. He says that La Niña reverses the situation, then heavy rains are expected in the Amazon and high temperatures in the central and southern parts of the country.
“The intense warming of the Mato Grosso do Sul and Pantanal regions is expected to continue until the second half of the year, so it is important to be alert to redouble our vigilance and reinforce teams to combat the risk of fires and forest fires. In short, we are going to have a significant dry period and the temperature is expected to remain above the average for the period”, he informs.
Electricity
According to Côrtes, the country’s energy industry has made large investments in solar and wind generation, therefore, it is fully capable of meeting the population’s demand even if drought hits the water reservoirs of the hydroelectric plants. He states, however, that people’s energy consumption has increased considerably in the last year due to the intense use of devices such as air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers to reduce the impact of heat waves, and this could end up causing supply problems.
“Our transmission lines do not have significant structural problems and do the job, but the problem lies with the regional distributors. We have seen, here in São Paulo, several places with a lack of energy, without this being linked to climate issues, because these are structural issues of the local distributors who were not prepared to meet this growing demand, which has been coming since the beginning of spring. ”, he analyzes.
According to the professor, several hydroelectric plants have already received guidance from the National Electric System Operator (ONS) to keep the level of their reservoirs high, that is, to reduce energy generation at this time, with the aim of having enough water to supply the dry period, thus avoiding the need to resort to more expensive energy sources, such as thermoelectric plants.
Agriculture
According to Pedro Luiz Côrtes, the impacts of this phenomenon have also caused disruption in the agricultural sector and the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) has already expressed concern about the crop failure in the country, especially soybeans. He adds that a number of corn producers had to delay planting due to lack of rain and are now unable to harvest.
“Some farmers complained to the government, which signaled the possibility of emergency financing due to the possibility of crop failure. We cannot negotiate with the climate, but we have tools to anticipate what could happen and prepare for that eventuality”, he concludes.