Uppsala University report shows armed conflicts kills twice
At least 237,000 people worldwide died in organized violence last year. This means an increase of 97 percent compared to the previous year and the highest figure since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. This is shown by a new report from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University.
– This large increase occurs despite the fact that 2021’s worst conflicts, Yemen and Afghanistan, were both scaled down significantly during the last year. Instead, violence has increased sharply in Ukraine and Ethiopia, says Shawn Davies, senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University (UCDP).
The wars in Ethiopia and Ukraine combined resulted in 180,000 combat-related deaths in 2022, on the low end, but the death toll from both of these wars remains unclear and is expected to be adjusted as more information becomes available. Despite this, statistics show that far more people died in these two wars last year than did in the entire world in the previous year.
– Many believe that Russia’s war in Ukraine was the bloodiest in 2022, but in fact more people died in Ethiopia, where the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been fighting the Ethiopian army, supported by Eritrea, since the fall of 2020, says Shawn Davies .
Trench warfare in Ethiopia and Ukraine
In both Ethiopia and Ukraine, the wars have largely been fought as trench warfare. In both cases, several of the warring parties have been accused of using human waves of newly recruited soldiers sent forward as cannon fodder, which contributed to the high death tolls.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years. Although conflicts between states are still relatively rare, they have increased in recent years.
– More states also interfere in conflicts in other countries, where they support rebel groups against a government, which in practice means that two states are fighting each other, says Therese Pettersson, project manager at UCDP.
The number of armed conflicts in the world where states are fighting each other or where at least one state is fighting a rebel group continues to be at a historically high level. UCDP recorded 55 such conflicts in 2022. This can be compared to the years 2000 to 2013 when the corresponding figure was between 31 and 39. In recent years, from 2015 onwards, that type of conflict has continued to increase and was between 52 and 56 every year.
– Although most conflicts are small, the number of wars in 2022 increased from five to eight. The conflicts that are classified as war are those that cause at least 1,000 battle-related deaths during a year, explains Therese Pettersson.
Rebel groups and drug cartels
The number of non-state conflicts, where rebel groups or other armed groups fight each other, is also at a record high. In total, the UCDP recorded 82 such conflicts in 2022. Of the ten deadliest non-state conflicts, nine took place in Mexico, where rival drug cartels have battled for control since the 1980s. Gang-related violence has also increased sharply in Brazil, Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador in recent years.
So-called unilateral violence, where civilians are the target, also increased in 2022. At least 11,800 civilians were killed in this type of targeted violence, carried out by 45 different states or organized groups. The Islamic State (IS) rebel group was the actor that killed the most, but states also attacked civilians in several directions. Russia and Eritrea both used a lot of violence against civilians in the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia.
Results from the 2023 report are published in the Journal of Peace Research.